By 2019 the growth rate of Instagram users in the United States will have been for the first time below 10%, standing at 6.7%. The data are from eMarketer which has revised its platform growth forecast by 2023 and now believes that Facebook's social network will grow slower than previously expected. Snapchat's "resurgence" and TikTok's popularity are some of the unfavorable factors.
EMarketer's previous forecast set a growth rate of 5.4% for 2020. However, the data has been revised and now the market researcher expects the platform to see the number of users growing by 4.5%. For 2021, the forecast is 3.2% instead of the previous 4.1%.
Growth of older people on Instagram does not grow as expected. TikTok and Snapchat don't help either
According to the company, one of the factors contributing to this change is that older people are not "venturing" into the platform as quickly as anticipated. But while the age of older users is not growing so fast, there were above-expected gains for US users aged 25-34, in this case 11.4%.
"However, we do not expect this group to change substantially over the next few years, as increased competition with the resurgence of Snapchat and the growing popularity of TikTok make it difficult for Instagram to grow," it reads.
The growth rate of cross-platform ad revenue is much more encouraging. EMarketer's forecast is that Instagram made $ 9.45 billion in ad revenue in 2019 and that amount will increase by 46.6% by 2020 to $ 13.86 billion. Ads recently introduced in different parts of the app, such as the "Discover" tab, offer a whole new range of possibilities, which has also helped. "Ads for product purchases are currently in beta on the platform, but we expect them to play a major role in future growth," the company writes.
Despite this slowing platform growth, eMarketer analyst Nazmul Islam praises the "performance" of Instagram, which it says is the second most accessed social network in the United States over the Internet, right behind Facebook. "Despite increasing competitive pressure, we expect Instagram to maintain its second place position, with a good difference from other platforms," he says.